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ESTABLISHMENT LABS HOLDINGS INC. (ESTA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered strong execution: revenue rose 33.8% year over year to $53.8M and gross margin hit a record 70.1%; Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.2M, marking the first EBITDA-positive quarter .
- Estimates were beaten: revenue exceeded consensus ($53.8M vs $52.3M) and EPS loss narrowed better than expected (-$0.38 vs -$0.53); strength was driven by mix shift to the U.S., pricing, and operating expense discipline [functions.GetEstimates]*.
- Guidance raised: 2025 revenue now expected to exceed $210M (from $208–$212M) and U.S. Motiva sales are set to meaningfully exceed $40M; management expects EBITDA to remain positive and to reach cash flow positive in 2026 .
- Near-term catalysts: accelerating U.S. adoption (Q3 U.S. revenue $11.9M, +16% sequential in a seasonally slow quarter), minimally invasive platform uptake (PreserVe early experience ~300 cases U.S.), and gross margin expansion; APAC rebounded (+46% seq) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record gross margin 70.1% (up 620 bps YoY, +130 bps QoQ) on higher-margin U.S. sales and pricing; first positive Adjusted EBITDA ($1.2M) achieved ahead of plan .
- U.S. momentum: Q3 U.S. revenue $11.9M (+16% QoQ), >1,300 surgeons now using Motiva; survey showed Motiva practices up 14.6% procedures YTD as patients request Motiva by name .
- Minimally invasive traction: PreserVe early experience estimated ~300 cases, with ~100 women waitlisted; NEO tracking $8–$10M 2025 revenue, and combined NEO+PreserVe expected >$30M in 2026 .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP net loss remains significant: Q3 net loss $11.1M despite operational progress; tariffs on Costa Rica imports persist, though impact managed .
- China remains challenging with slower distributor scaling; management removed China contributions from near-term expectations earlier this year and continues to work with partners .
- Operating expenses elevated versus prior year: Q3 OpEx $41.7M (+$2.8M YoY), reflecting U.S. investment; though trending lower QoQ vs Q2 spike .
Financial Results
Quarterly P&L and Key Metrics
Q3 2025 Comparative View
Consensus vs Actuals
Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment and Geographic Mix (Q3 2025)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We grew global revenue 34%… exceeded a 70% gross profit margin… achieved the first quarter of positive EBITDA… focus towards reaching cash flow positive next year.”
- CFO: “Gross profit… 70.1%… primarily the result of higher margin sales in the United States… operating expenses… ~$45–$46M per quarter… Adjusted EBITDA was positive $1.2M… expect EBITDA will continue to improve… remain EBITDA positive from here on.”
- CEO on demand: “Plastic surgeons consistently tell us that if they offer patients a choice between Motiva and legacy implants, it’s almost unanimous that patients will choose Motiva.”
- CEO on PreserVe: “We are seeing as much as a 40% price premium… estimate that 300 PreserVe cases have been performed in the U.S., and at least 100 women on waitlist.”
Q&A Highlights
- U.S./Q4 cadence: U.S. is largest market; momentum strong but prudent Q4 midpoint given first U.S. Q4; expect to exceed prior $40M U.S. guide .
- China outlook: Working with partners; sell-out improving; building the business “the right way”; cautious near term .
- Market dynamics vs peers: Not seeing weakness; growth driven by share capture and category expansion in breast aesthetics .
- Market share math: U.S. augmentation market estimated ~$390–$400M (≈300k procedures; ASP ~$1,300); exit ~20% share by year-end .
- 2026 growth drivers: Add ~15 reps; PreserVe U.S. launch; small sizes approval; combine new accounts with deeper penetration .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 beat: Revenue $53.8M vs $52.3M consensus; EPS -$0.38 vs -$0.53 consensus; both stronger than expected, reflecting U.S. mix, pricing, and OpEx control [functions.GetEstimates]*.
- Prior quarters also modestly positive vs consensus: Q1 revenue slightly above; EPS better than expected; Q2 in line to modest beat [functions.GetEstimates]*.
- Implication: Street likely to raise FY 2025 revenue (above $210M) and tighten loss trajectory; ongoing gross margin expansion supports medium-term EPS revisions higher .
Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Momentum inflecting: first positive Adjusted EBITDA, record 70.1% gross margin, accelerating U.S. adoption; sets up continued EBITDA expansion in Q4 and 2026 .
- Guidance trend positive: FY25 revenue >$210M with U.S. “meaningfully” >$40M; mix and pricing drive margin trajectory toward upper end of prior range .
- Structural growth drivers: minimally invasive (PreserVe, Mia) expanding TAM; NEO + PreserVe guided >$30M for FY26; U.S. reconstruction PMA supplement milestone near-term .
- Watch list items: China distributor execution; tariff environment; operating expense discipline vs growth investment; refinancing of credit facility to reduce cash use .
- Trading setup: Narrative catalysts—margin expansion, sustained U.S. growth, minimally invasive uptake—support estimate revisions; any confirmation of Q4 U.S. strength and PMA filing could be stock-positive .
- Medium-term thesis: Path to cash flow positive in 2026 without equity; leverage from higher-margin U.S. revenue and controlled OpEx underpins EPS trajectory into 2027+ .
- Execution checkpoint: Track U.S. surgeon adoption (>1,300), PreserVe training ramp in early 2026, and APAC distributor order cadence following Q3 rebound .